Rain and Rain, and my Mind Wandering

 
 
This morning I woke up thinking it was raining, and spent several minutes thinking about how this would effect the camping trip.  fortunately, it turned out the sound of the downstairs neighbor's bathroom fan sounds a lot like dripping water, i kid you not.

Now, just a few minutes ago, I found out that the senior travel agent here just up and quit.  Now there's one half-trained and unenthusiastic travel agent for the entire company, and I'm starting to get nervous about the high overturn in this place.

Admittedly, the pay here is crap, but things are lax, and I really don't like the idea of unemployment again.  maybe I should start looking soon though.  On the other hand, this would be another short-term job; my resume is lousy with those.

So i'm wandering.  Where I will go.

goats and guns, sticking to.

I recently ran across this interesting little article by Marilyn vos Savant, regarding the Monty Hall problem.   There's a couple interesting things about it that attracted my attention- and I recommend everyone read to the bottom of the comments to get the full effect of the article, the responses, and the result.


First, the answer is so completely non-intuitive- it seems so incredibly obvious that the odds of getting a car when one switches doors is 50-50.  Probably the same sort of obviousness that makes people who jump off roofs think they'll fall straight down to land in the bushes, rather than fall in an arc, down to the sidewalk.

Second, the controversy the obviousness of the answer provoked: there were full-on PhD's in mathematics writing to tell vos Savant she was wrong, along with thousands of other people.  It's a sign that most people in this country don't understand probability, and probably explains why casinos stay in business.

Third, I really admire the fact that vos Savant stuck to her guns; she was right, she knew she was right, and she wasn't about to back down.  But she didn't get confrontational about it; she explained her position, and then when people STILL didn't believe her, she crafted an experiment for people to do.  Naturally, the experiment proved she was right, and nearly everyone admitted that fact.

So we have someone who faced down the public because she knew she was right, but more than that, she went and proved her point, making a controversy into a valuable lesson.  I was always a little skeptical of Marilyn vos Savant, since I don't buy into the idea that a high IQ means much.  But I'm actually pretty damn impressed now, because we NEED this sort of math training in classrooms.

The thing is, math isn't simply memorizing formulas, or doing problems; it's an art, a creative act, one that involves conducting thought experiments.  So, if we really want our children to be proficient at math, we need less "teaching to the test", and much more interesting demonstrations like the one Marilyn vos Savant gave us.

So, bottom line, I'm glad that the controversy didn't get her goat.

The One-Word Meme.

I was going to post this earlier, but got distracted.

...have I mentioned I'm getting tired of the term "meme"? 

Oh well, what-EVAR.

( The One-Word Meme )